https://repositorio.utem.cl/handle/30081993/1360 2026-04-04T12:55:09Z https://repositorio.utem.cl/handle/30081993/1368 Modelación de la propagación de la COVID-19: contribución prospectiva a las políticas de salud en México a partir del R0. Villavicencio-Pulido, José Geiser; Nila-Luévano, Claudia; Jardón Valadez, Eduardo; Blásquez Martínez, Lidia Ivonne In this work we present results from epidemiological modeling to describe the propagation of COVID-19 in Mexico, at the national and federal entity levels. In the model we consider that the basic reproductive number, R0, includes contributions from asymptomatic and symptomatic carriers, and from contaminated surfaces. In total, the model contains eleven parameters, six of those parameters were taken from previews studies, and five were estimated from data of confirmed cases as reported by the federal Health Secretary. The estimated parameters calculated by bayesian techniques correspond to the transmission rates, and dispersion of viral particles into the environment. R0 is a combination of contributions to the secondary infections due to symptomatic [pR0] and asymptomatic [(1− p)R0] individuals, which allows to predict the dynamics of the disease in the short term. R0 was calculated for twelve federal entities, in two-time windows, so the effect of symptomatic and asymptomatic contributions could be assessed. Knowing the symptomatic and asymptomatic contributions to R0 will allow to design strategies for the control or eradication of the disease at the subnational and national level. Pág. 30 - 40, gráficos y fórmulas. 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.utem.cl/handle/30081993/1367 Influencia del efecto Allee en las presas y de la colaboración entre los depredadores en un modelo de depredación del tipo Leslie-Gower. González-Olivares, Eduardo; Rojas-Palma, Alejandro Usually in the real world the interactions between predators and their prey are influenced by several behaviors of both prey and predators. Collaboration or cooperation between predators is one of these behaviors, which has received less attention than competition between consumers. These behaviors are important aspects in the dynamics of food chains or trophic webs. In this work, we will deal with the influence of collaboration between predators to consume (or capture) their prey, which are affected by an Allee effect. Pág. 21 - 29, gráficos y fórmulas 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.utem.cl/handle/30081993/1366 Efecto de una mortalidad diferenciada por rasgos fenotípicos sobre la distribución genotípica: un modelo impulsivo para el caso mendeliano. Rojas-Castro, Héctor; Córdova-Lepe, Fernando A diploid, closed, panmictic population that supports a Malthusian growth model is compartmentalized according to its genotype, for a specific locus, into three subpopulations: two homozygous and one heterozygous. Under the assumption that the population is extracted by alternating constant closure times with comparatively shorter capture instants, the genotype frequencies of each subpopulation are impulsively modeled, assuming that each genotype expresses a phenotypic characteristic that differentiates the mortality rates per capture. From this model, results are obtained regarding the long-term genotypic distribution. Pág. 11 - 20, gráficos, tablas y fórmulas. 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.utem.cl/handle/30081993/1365 When optimal is not the best: Cost-effectiveness analysis for HPV epidemic models. Saldaña, Fernando; Camacho-Gutiérrez, José Ariel; Barradas, Ignacio; Korobeinikov, Andrei For this, we consider a two-sex epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of HPV which includes screening, vaccination of adolescent boys and girls, and vaccination of sexually active adults. We first propose public health policies using constant control parameters and develop a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to identify which intervention delivers the best effectiveness for the money invested. Secondly, we consider time-dependent control parameters and formulate an optimal control problem to obtain time-dependent versions of the interventions. As in the case of constant control parameters, we perform a CEA to investigate the cost-effectiveness of the time-dependent control interventions. Our findings suggest that females’ vaccination, including adolescent girls and adult women, is the most cost-effective strategy. We also compare constant against the time-dependent healthcare interventions which are optimal in the sense that they minimize the objective functional of the optimal control problem. The results indicate that time-dependent controls are not always more cost-effective than constant controls. Pag. 1 a 10, gráficos y tablas 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z