Modelación de la propagación de la COVID-19: contribución prospectiva a las políticas de salud en México a partir del R0.

Abstract

In this work we present results from epidemiological modeling to describe the propagation of COVID-19 in Mexico, at the national and federal entity levels. In the model we consider that the basic reproductive number, R0, includes contributions from asymptomatic and symptomatic carriers, and from contaminated surfaces. In total, the model contains eleven parameters, six of those parameters were taken from previews studies, and five were estimated from data of confirmed cases as reported by the federal Health Secretary. The estimated parameters calculated by bayesian techniques correspond to the transmission rates, and dispersion of viral particles into the environment. R0 is a combination of contributions to the secondary infections due to symptomatic [pR0] and asymptomatic [(1− p)R0] individuals, which allows to predict the dynamics of the disease in the short term. R0 was calculated for twelve federal entities, in two-time windows, so the effect of symptomatic and asymptomatic contributions could be assessed. Knowing the symptomatic and asymptomatic contributions to R0 will allow to design strategies for the control or eradication of the disease at the subnational and national level.